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Todays Selections

Wed 7th Mar 2012 20:19

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

last bet before Is start hunting a few more anti post selections and its INQUISITRESS (18/1) - 2.50 Points e/w. Its speculative but the inside rail seemed to be riding fast tonight and this one has the plum draw, a good jockey onboard and plenty of CD experience.

Thu 8th Mar 2012 01:40

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

RSA CHASE - BOBS WORTH (4/1 Betfair) - 30pts

A Few Key Trends

1. Aged 7 or 8
2. Did not win the Feltham
3. Has run 3-5 times over fences (if more must be unbeaten)
4. Finished 1st or 2nd Last time out
5. Has won a graded race over at least 2m 5f
6. Completed/won a 3m chase race in under 6 minutes
7. NH Bred
8. Not finished outside of the first 3 in it's chasing career
9. No headgear
10. Trained in Ireland or by Paul Nicholls
11. Run since the 31st December but not in the last 27 days
12. No more than 12 runs over hurdles and fences

Now if you take these rough criteria into account it pretty much leaves you with Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant and Join Together (although JT hasn't had a prep race). Personally I think Grand Crus will be beaten hands down as there are way too many key trends which go against him. Although FL looks like a good e/w bet, the winner of the last years Neptune hasnt figured in the finish of the RSA since 1991! For that reason BOBS WORTH is my max bet here and I think he still looks like value at 4-1 considering his record at the track.

As far as outsiders go I have already backed Call the police and I also think Lambro may have an e/w shout if he makes an appearence.

Thu 8th Mar 2012 12:01

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

Starting Bank = 738.25

My first bet of the day is an antipost selection in the without Longrun and Kauto Star market on Betfair. My pick is SYNCHRONISED (8/1) - 10 point win. This one has always been a nearly horse, his form at Cheltenham has been poor in the past but when you look at key breeding criteria, stamina, speed, riding style etc I think this one has a realy chance even with LR & KS in the race.

Bank = 728.25

Now on to todays racing and I am concerntrating on Wincanton.

2:00 Wincanton - MONTE CAVALLO (4/9) - 90pt WIN - This one is an absolute banker for me. It has very strong form lines, has been heavily punted this morning, McCoys booked and the trainer does very well in these kind of events. It may be short but it should easy money. I will also be backing MIGHTY MAMBO (16/1) in a 2.50 e/w bet.

3:00 Wincanton -GRANDIOSO (15/2) - 7.50pts e/w - When I first looked at the card last night I really fancied this one and expected it to open up around 4-1. Unfortunately in the last 4-5 hours this one has been completely friendless in the market and as a result has drifted out to a best price of 15/2. Now this could be an omen that the horse will need the run, or could just be that connections are waiting to lump on late. Eitherway on past form this horse can do the business today and after hearing last season that this horse had a slight breathing problem, the addition of the 1st time Tongue tie is a major positive. Race fit or not, he still should be good enough to finish in the top 3.

4:05 Wincanton - GENTLE BOB (9/4) - 18.25 WIN - This horse should be quite capable of winning this race if the same tactics as last time are employed by the jockey. He jumps well and enjoys to stretch out his rivals, at this course that puts you bang in the driving seat.

Bank = 600.00

Thu 8th Mar 2012 12:35

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

One more to add for today, 2:30 Wincanton - UNWANTED GIFT (9/2) - 10 Point win - I think the handicapper may have missed a trick with this one and on his previous form he should having the beating of his competitors.

Bank = 590.00

Thu 8th Mar 2012 14:08

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

Well that is without doubt the easiest 40pts I have ever earned.
Monte wins by an absolute mile with McCoy motionless in the saddle and looks like a good horse.

Bank = 720.00

Thu 8th Mar 2012 14:22

RE: Todays Selections

	mhenney1 Dark Horse	Join date: Oct 2009 Location: SHREWSBURY
	Posts: 2638

Definitely looks like a decent horse Jevans, i backed against it for some unknown reason! Well done though you had full confidence in the victory and it could not have been more convincing.

Mes Que Un Club

Thu 8th Mar 2012 15:17

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

Cheers mate for me it was serious banker material and front running tactics are key at Wincanton.

3:55 Southwell - JACOB MCCANDLES (3-1) - 20pt win - This is a kind of horse which I follow at this time in the AW season. You regularly see trainers (especially Gosden) bring juveniles to the track who are taking a considerable drop in trip. The logic behind it is that the horses were originally trained with the big 1m 2f turf races in mind but never made the cut. The yards quickly assess that the horse doesn't have what it takes and they then look to reserve the horse in order to obtain a reasonable handicap mark. If you watch McCandles few runs in maidens it is evident that he was never put in a position to win any of his races. He now turns up at a track where the trainer has a cracking record with a low handicap mark and surprise surprise the money floods in for him. I would be pretty confident he will win and the only horse I can see troubling him is one of the other top weight horses THACKERAY (8/1) and I will 2pts e/w on him as well.

Bank = 695.00

Thu 8th Mar 2012 15:23

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

As expected Grandioso was good enough to grab a place on his reappearance returning 21.56 points

Bank = 716.56

Thu 8th Mar 2012 16:05

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

Sometimes this game is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel!

Jacob McCandles - 1st (80 points)

Thackeray - 3rd (5.20 points)

Bank = 801.76

Thu 8th Mar 2012 16:12

RE: Todays Selections

	Richard Ryan Dark Horse	Join date: Jun 2010 Location: CAMBERLEY
	Posts: 2521

Good couple of calls with Bob and Jacobs! Followed those and given me more to pour on Dickie in the next at South. He's got to come good today!

It'll never win if I'm watching it!

Thu 8th Mar 2012 16:13

RE: Todays Selections

	jevans11 Dark Horse	Join date: Mar 2011 Location: SWANSEA
	Posts: 5057

""4:05 Wincanton - GENTLE BOB (9/4) - 18.25 WIN - This horse should be quite capable of winning this race if the same tactics as last time are employed by the jockey. He jumps well and enjoys to stretch out his rivals, at this course that puts you bang in the driving seat. ""

Another winner on the day and another great front running ride.

Bank = 861.07