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| Windsor is back & definitely is a horses for courses track!! |
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Bazgtr
Stud
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Join date: Feb 2011
Location: SWANSEA
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| Posts: 826 |
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Originally posted by Richard Ryan
"Tommy...2nd race tonight Liguarian Sea has a great chance...came up in my alerts. My notes stated it finished really strong after running somewhat green....it's at 4s at mo...my banker of the night."
YES it does have a great chance too which I've done myself.
Baz.
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cmiddleton
Stud
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Join date: Mar 2011
Location: SHEFFIELD
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| Posts: 929 |
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I would go with split stakes on CHORAL FESTIVAL, ON KHEE & MASLAK and might be worth doing small stakes combo forecasts & tricasts for a bit of extra fun.
spot on Tommy
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Richard Ryan
Dark Horse
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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| Posts: 2562 |
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It's hit the target again this thread! I follow it every week and mix it up with speedratings...but Windsor is a funny old course!
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| It'll never win if I'm watching it! |
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tbuckley
Dark Horse
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Join date: Oct 2006
Location: ALFRETON
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| Posts: 11395 |
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Hello
Well hopefully some of you were on the advice for tonights early Windsor races:
"6.10 - BAVARICA, ON KHEE, MASLAK, SAND REPEAL, CHORAL FESTIVAL, SQUAD have all shown decent form at Windsor before & in fact ON KHEE, SAND REPEAL, CHORAL FESTIVAL & MASLAK are all previous course & distance winner with MASLAK actually winning this race last year, I would think one of those mentioned will win & the others will be contenders for the places but obviously can't back them all so I would go with split stakes on CHORAL FESTIVAL, ON KHEE & MASLAK and might be worth doing small stakes combo forecasts & tricasts for a bit of extra fun."
RESULT = 1st - ON KHEE 3/1
2nd - MASLAK 11/4
3rd - CHORAL FESTIVAL 6/1
Forecast = £12.50
Tricast = £43.74
"6.40 - in terms of the course form system then trainer David Elsworth holds all the aces here with both SALFORD ART & ELUSIVE FLAME who both ran with great promise here last time out & both should have more improvement to come,"
RESULT = 1st - SALFORD ART at 9/4
"7.10 - Seriously competitive sprint handicap here & certainly a race that will take some solving - the course form representatives here are TRIPLE DREAM, EVEN BOLDER, CAPE ROYAL, CREW CUT, WELSH INLET & IMAGINARY DIVA, that's 6 system qualifiers in a field of 9 runners so obviously can't back them all, I would personally take IMAGINARY DIVA, EVEN BOLDER & WELSH INLET as 3 sporting bets against the field and again might be worth a bit of small stakes fun for combo forecasts & tricasts."
IMAGINARY DIVA 2nd at 11/1 & WELSH INLET 3rd at 11/2, very unlucky there as well with IMAGINARY DIVA only beaten a head very nearly a very nice 11/1 winner but the e/w way will do
Fingers crossed the remaining races go our way as well....
all the best
Tommy
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Richard Ryan
Dark Horse
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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| Posts: 2562 |
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Tommy...had the placepot up 8 times tonight - dipped out on the jackpot when that Rebecca nicked it on the line and I discounted On Khee in the first!
Thanks for continuing this thread.
Rich
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| It'll never win if I'm watching it! |
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tbuckley
Dark Horse
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Join date: Oct 2006
Location: ALFRETON
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| Posts: 11395 |
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Hello
"Fingers crossed the remaining races go our way as well...."
I think it is safe to say that the remaining races did indeed go our way!!!!
Overall tonight this thread produced the following:
6.10 - 1st, 2nd & 3rd home with ON KHEE, MASLAK & CHORAL FESTIVAL all previous course & distance winners delivering £12.50 exacta & a £43 tricast!!!
6.40 - SALFORD ART goes in at 9/4
7.10 - previous course & distance winner IMAGINARY DIVA very nearly delivered at 11/1 but the each way will still do nicely as will the each way return on other selection WELSH INLET who got 3rd at 11/2
7.40 - UNCLE FRED was highlighted as one of the 3 course form qualifiers & given a sound each way chance at least, nice to see that one come home first at 7/1
8.10 - ASHIRI did the course form theory proud by getting 2nd at 13/2 & the one I highlighted as the one to beat POLPERRO duly delivered 1st prize, I did not bet on that race but those were healthy returns & indeed the forecast paid a nice £14.94
8.40 - EFISTORM & MEMPHIS MAN were highlighted as 2 of my 3 course form picks and EFISTORM finished the night off in style by winning at 3/1 while MEMPHIS MAN again delivered on favourite course by getting 3rd at 12/1.
I have said time & time again how much I enjoy getting stuck into Windsor & how I believe previous course form is the big key to finding the winners & places, and time & time again this thread & the subsequent results have proven that to be absolutely spot on, now I've had some small stakes fun bets & I'm happy with the returns but more importantly I really hope that fellow gg.com members have found this thread useful & interesting and indeed got stuck into the selections because if you have you should be feeling very happy right now!!!
Role on the next Windsor meeting!!!!
all the best & good luck to everybody
Tommy
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Well done tommy the hard work surely has paid off.
Glad to see your getting a few hundred winners lol
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Drink is a Mans worst enemy, but the bible does state keep your friends close but your enemies closer.....
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Richard Ryan
Dark Horse
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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| Posts: 2562 |
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Tommy.....back in business on Monday!!!
I've got an annual badge this year so keep em coming pal!
Cheers
Rich
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| It'll never win if I'm watching it! |
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tbuckley
Dark Horse
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Join date: Oct 2006
Location: ALFRETON
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| Posts: 11395 |
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"
Tommy.....back in business on Monday!!! "
.......and there was me thinking I might have just earned a few days off!!!
Ok, seeing as though demanded my return on this thread so nicely then I'll see what I can do, if the Windsor course form theory holds for another season, has done every season so far, & I help you get a few winners then I think I might have to charge commission, an all expenses paid day at Windsor races sounds pretty good to me!!!
No problem Rich & I will do my best to keep this going, workload, family life & the occasional holiday might get in the way but you know me & I'll deliver what I can.
I've just had a quick look at the early races on the card, so see what you make of this:
2.00 - Paul Cole won this last year with SILVERHEELS & she went onto run in Group/Listed race so could be a race that produces a few smart ones for the future, best this time around might be C Hills's colt by Dark Angel REGAL DAN or possibly Richard Hannon's Sakhee's Secret colt MERINGUE PIE & no doubt given Hannon's great record at windsor that one will be favourite.
2.30 - CHARLOTTE ROSINA & LITTLE CHINA are the only runners with previous course experience at Windsor while Richard Hannon & Ryan Moore have to be respected with IMPEL who will arrive here fit after a run at Kempton 2 weeks, finished 4th that day & might well make fitness pay off.
3.00 - wide open race with ALJOSAN & MASTERS CLUB the only runners with previous Windsor experience, ALJOSAN ran a decent enough 3rd here last year & that would make him my value pick in the race.
3.30 - no previous course form to go on but it is without doubt a fascinating maiden with the big yards represented by potentially very smart horses - Andrew Balding trained last years winner Discoteca so his JUST WHEN could be interesting having already had one start, John Gosden finished 3rd in this race last year & no doubt his Authorized colt PROOFREADER will be popular in the betting ring while obviously massive respect has to be given those entered by Henry Cecil, Sir Michael Stoute & Roger Charlton
Just going on last years result I would take JUST WHEN & PROOFREADER as my picks against the field, and working in the print/news media business proof reading is something that I've had to do a lot of in the past so would add a little touch of sentiment to it as well, while on the subject of names my mum would no doubt go for TOM RED in that race.
So what do you make of that Richard, I'll do the rest tomorrow night, I just hope that first & foremost you really enjoy your days out at Windsor & hope you have many reasons to open up the champagne or whatever your tipple is!!! |
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Richard Ryan
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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Great that you're on the ball....I'm going to have a better look Sunday night after enjoying today's lot. I hope to be smartphone'd up soon so I can use GG whilst there. Served me really well last season.
Good luck today.
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| It'll never win if I'm watching it! |
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Richard Ryan
Dark Horse
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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Tommy,
Well hopefully I'll be able to pick up some on-course vibes tomorrow about the newcomers.
The stand out runners for me are Taurus Twins and Pearl Blue in the 5.00. Taurus may well need this run but Pearl could run well first time out this season.
Uncle Fred in the lucky last who won first time out last year here and 2 of his 4 victories have been at this course. It was considered he'd need the run last year but romped in.
I'll have another look later when I've got access to all the data I like to use.
I shall be taking good long look at Burke's runner Preistley's Reward as well in an earlier race.
Cheers
Rich
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| It'll never win if I'm watching it! |
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tbuckley
Dark Horse
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Join date: Oct 2006
Location: ALFRETON
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| Posts: 11395 |
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Good stuff Rich, really interesting to exchange opinions & hopefully it will pay off for anybody who follows, that's what we all want isn't it.
I had another quick look last night & saw John Gosden's once raced 3 year old son of Rock of Gibraltar FALKLAND entered in the 4.00 3 year old maiden.
I was at Doncaster when FALKLAND made his debut, I'm no paddock expert as such but I thought he looked great in the parade ring & there was one decent bet of a few grand that went in & his price went from 12/1 to 8/1 so somebody fancied him - as it turned out FALKLAND was a bit slow away & was always towards the back end of the field, he started staying on down the straight but wasn't quick enough on the day to get there.
I actually think that race will work out quite well because John Gosden's other runner that day THETURNOFTHESUN has won since & I also think the front two that day, ZAINA & MINIMISE RISK, could well turn out to be pretty decent horses.
So my point of in that 4.00 will be FALKLAND & I'm expecting a lot of improvement from him, while you have to give huge respect to Sir Michael Stoute's & Sir Henry Cecil's newcomers.
I'm off out now with the family, I'll do the rest of the races later
thanks again for your opinions Richard, hopefully mine will help in some way too.
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tbuckley
Dark Horse
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Join date: Oct 2006
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I've already covered my thoughts on the Windsor card from 2.00 through to 4.00 so here are my own views on the last 3 races on the card.
The 4.30 looks a typical ultra-competitive, wide open Windsor handicap with a whole host of course & distance winners in the field along with other horses with course form in the book and it's going to be tough to split them.
The three course & distance winners UNCLE FRED, STARWATCH & REE'S RASCAL command immediate respect on that basis alone & indeed as Richard already highlighted UNCLE FRED won this last year so no doubt will be primed to go well again.
Former 2000 Guineas horse MOYNAHAN was a good 2nd in a better class handicap at this course last year & I think it's interesting that Paul Cole has kept hold of him, he has to be feared if he can show anything like his best form, at big double figure odds he's a fair each way consideration as well.
ISLESMAN deserves a mention again on this thread, was mentioned last year after getting a good 2nd in a Class 3 handicap here & with William Buick in the saddle for this bottom weight then he's another that has to be considered.
So that is UNCLE FRED, REE'S RASCAL, STARWATCH, MOYNAHAN & ISLESMAN who are the horses with the proven course form in the book & for system purposes it's those against the field, can't really expect to back all 5 obviously but given they are all forecast to be around 8/1 to 14/1 then there is each way value there if you fancy backing any of them.
For a more sporting, fun bet then combination forecasts & tricasts can be done for small money, for example you could do 20p combination forecasts & 10p combination tricasts for a total of £10, last year the forecast was £42 & the tricast was nearly £400 with horses priced 9/1, 4/1 & 11/1 so it's not out the question & this idea did pay off a few times last year on this thread.
For the purpose of reducing that total of 5 down to a sensible group of 3 plays against the field is not but I'll nominate the 3 course & distance winners REE'S RASCAL, UNCLE FRED & STARWATCH as 3 lively each way contenders.
The 5.00 is very similar to the 4.30 in the fact it's a serioulsy competitive looking handicap with the previous years winner turning up again in the form of TAURUS TWINS who takes his chance along with 4 other course & distance winners with DESERT STRIKE & STYLE AND PANACHE respected as each way candidates off their low weights & the more than capable jockey's in the saddle with Cathy Gannon particularly good at this course when teaming up with trainer P Evans.
The two other course & distance winners in the field are SOLEMN & PEARL BLUE, SOLEMN has 2 good 2nds & a win from 3 course starts while PEARL BLUE won his only course start with ease so again they have to be considered as live each way contenders here.
CADEAUX PEARL was 3rd behind STYLE AND PANACHE here last year, SIX WIVES has one course run in the book which was a 4th at 40/1 so not immediately impressive but she was only beaten a length that day so not completely out of it, AVONMORE STAR has course form in the book & represents the formidable team of Hannon & Moore so has to respected
That's 8 horses in the field that qualify under the system having got decent previous course form in the book, again not expecting to back them all & 6 picks makes combinations unthinkable.
It's a tough looking handicap & anything can happen, indeed nothing can be ruled in or out with confidence but I like the look of the previous course & distance winners and I think they may well provide the winner & places, fingers crossed all 16 run giving 4 places to the each way players.
Of that group of course & distance winners I'll take STYLE AND PANAHCE, TAURUS TWINS & DESERT STRIKE as my main 3 each way picks from that group although anything can happen here.
The 5.30 looks another seriously tough race to try & work out with 16 runners going at it in a wide open looking 1m 3f handicap.
Only 1 course & distance winner in the line-up this time and that's the forecast outsider TIMOCRACY who won a selling race here, course form is respected & has an each way chance off a low weight with the capable Leona Mayor taking another 7lb off but whether TIMOCRACY will be good enough win this has to be seen.
HURRICANE HYMBOOK came 2nd here over 1 mile in a class 3 handicap when staying on & has another run in the book where he ran similarly as well.
ONEIRIC was 2nd here last behind a smart sort from Sir Michael Stoute & that gives him a chance at a big price if this go his way although it won't be easy.
So there are only 3 with anything like decent previous course form at Windsor & I can't say either of them are anything more than each way chances at prices so of course there has to be a big chance this will be won by one of the others.
The likely favourite SHALAMBAR has an obvious, solid profile of good recent form & is given massive respect but a note of caution has to be the facts he's got 2 poor course runs in the book.
I personally think that HONOURABLE KNIGHT, BROUGHTON SANDS & SHADES OF GREY are the 3 most interesting options here with HONOURABLE KNIGHT's solid, consistent profile, W Musson does well at this track with horses for this owner so BROUGHTON SANDS has that in favour along with good form & SHADES OF GREY represents trainer Clive Cox who has had a good start to the season & his horses are going well & are clearly ready.
So there you, they are my thoughts on the first Windsor card of the year based primarily around the proven system of previous course form being a big, positive factor in a lot of the races, not always a factor but definitely a positive factor that can be used to filter selections.
As ever make of that whatever you choose to & good luck with whatever you go for.
all the best
Tommy
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a.k.a. 'Scorecaster' part of a TEAM from http://www.bettingpreview.co.uk
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Richard Ryan
Dark Horse
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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| Posts: 2562 |
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I like the look of Islesman....decent run out last week..decent price. Have slung it in an each way double with Style and Panache.
Jevans has bit of news on Hills runner in the first as well as good sutff for the 4.00.
Good luck today...appreciate your work here.
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| It'll never win if I'm watching it! |
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Richard Ryan
Dark Horse
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Join date: Jun 2010
Location: CAMBERLEY
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Oh and Star Commander in the lucky last...been gelded and being backed this morning.
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