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03:44 Friday 3rd September 2010

Bill Esdaile's Trading Talk

Updated: 3rd July 2008
4th July 2008
Bill Esdaile
We've got a couple of weeks break now before everyone starts talking about the football season again. The Sporting Index traders will have the season points markets up soon, so focus must turn to some of the more traditional British summer sports this week.

There have already been a number of upsets at Wimbledon which will have undoubtedly scuppered many punters' bets. However, at the time of writing, those spread bettors amongst you who have bought Federer and Nadal in the men's singles tournament index will be sitting pretty and hoping for a repeat of the last two finals. Federer is attempting to become the first player since William Renshaw in 1886 to win six consecutive men's singles titles at Wimbledon and he has made it to the semi finals in typically clinical fashion; failing to concede a set in his opening five games. If the best two players in the tournament, as expected, make it to Sunday's final, then first set games punters are going to have the tricky decision whether to buy or sell the spread. Two years ago, the Swiss maestro steamed ahead with a 6-0 opening set win, which will obviously please sellers. However, last year he just got through a tense first-set tie-break, before winning the epic 5-set contest.

These two have only met in major finals at the French and Wimbledon, but they have done in all of the last five at both venues (before potentially this one). Nadal holds the advantage due to his three Roland Garros wins, but Federer has proved unbeatable on grass in recent years and his winning streak on this surface is now an incredible 64 matches. Sporting Index punters will undoubtedly find it hard to desert the champion, but buyers of Federer in the final win index will be concerned that each time he has faced Nadal in Paris, the defeat has got heavier, whilst each win at Wimbledon has been more difficult. The game looks very difficult to call, but those who like a spread bet will be interested in buying or selling total games in the final. Nadal underlined his dominance on clay last month, with Federer only winning four games, which led to an extremely low final games make-up of 22. Sellers of total games will be concerned that although the three finals at Roland Garros only average 32.3 games, the two at Wimbledon have averaged 46.5, with 52 in last year's epic. Buyers will be further buoyed by four of the nine sets played between these two in Wimbledon finals going to a tie-break.

It's the turn of the ladies 24 hours earlier and it looks like we could have another sense of déjà vu in the final, with both of the Williams sisters progressing comfortably to the semis. These two have won six of the last eight titles here and with hotpots such as Sharapova, Ivanovic and Jankovic going out in the early rounds, buyers of either of them in the Sporting Index win index will have been feeling confident for quite some time. Venus holds the best record at Wimbledon, winning four titles compared with her sister's two. However, the betting public should also be aware that in six grand slam finals between the two, the older sister has only won once (the US Open in 2001). Serena has won both times they've met in the final at Wimbledon, which will please those buying her in the match index.


Venus won the title last year, beating French challenger Marion Bartoli 6-4, 6-1, which ironically was very similar to Serena's last final appearance at the All-England Club, when she was beaten 6-1, 6-4 by Maria Sharapova in 2004. Sellers of total games will be hoping for a repeat of these finals and will be glad to hear that only two of the sisters' six final meetings have gone to a final set. However, three of the last five Wimbledon finals have gone all the way, two involving Venus, and buyers of total games will be hoping that Saturday's final is a repeat of the 2005 contest between Venus and Lindsay Davenport. The game was very tight and Williams eventually came out on top after an incredible 4-6, 7-6, 9-7 victory – one of the longest ladies finals ever played at Wimbledon and probably the most volatile spread betting final ever seen.

It's the British Grand Prix this weekend and the patriotic betting public are likely to out in force to buy Lewis Hamilton's finishing position – hoping that he can become the first Briton to win the race since David Coulthard in 2000. Silverstone has had some very close, exciting finishes in recent years and the chicane at Woodcote is the place to look out for fast, overtaking manoeuvres. It is the perfect track for spread betting due to its unpredictability and in the last 10 years, five winners have won by a winning time margin of 2.7 seconds or less, with three of the last four under this figure. Buyers of the winning time margin should take note. Qualifying, as we all know, is so important on the Grand Prix circuit. However, it doesn't appear to be as important at the Northamptonshire track. Only two of the last 10 winners started from pole, whilst half in the last decade have won from the second line of the grid. Punters looking to have a bet on the outsiders in the win index should be careful though, as Ferrari have won 5 and McLaren 4 of the last 10.

Kimi Raikkonen is currently favourite in Sporting Index's season points market and his spread is 104-108, whilst team-mate Felipe Massa (currently 5 points ahead) is trading at 101-105. Massa buyers will obviously be concerned that Raikkonen has that all-important experience, but they will be delighted to hear that since 1987, the driver leading the Championship after eight races has gone on to win the title 18 times – with the other three all coming second. They will be further buoyed by the news that at this stage of the season, 19 of the last 21 champions had won three races (Massa is the only driver to register three wins so far this year). Buyers of Hamilton and Kubica at 92 and 93 respectively will be concerned that 18 of the last 20 champions had started in at least 50 races before the start of their winning season.
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